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General Commentary
August 28, 2016

IdioT InTo IoT

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Market Snapshot

Indices Week YTD
GSV 300 0.00% 53.10%
S&P 500 -0.20% 15.30%
Dow -0.50% 18.50%
NASDAQ -0.20% 25.40%
Russell 2000 -1.30% 8.70%
MSCI -0.10% 32.20%
Valuations P/E Fwd P/E/G
GSV 300 27.5x 0.7x
S&P 500 19.4x 2.6x
I-Rates Now YTD
10-Year Note 2.40% -2.00%
3-Month Bill 1.23% 141.20%
Sentiment - Current
Bull-Bear - 45.1-23.1
Put-Call - 1.16
Vix - 11.29
Inflation Now YTD
Gold $1276 10.70%
Oil $56.90 5.70%
Mutual Funds - Week
Fund Flows (bil) - $4.70
Growth-Value 00-09 09-Now
Growth -34% 244%
Value 87% 147%

These things will not bite you, they want to have fun. Then, out of the box came thing two and thing one!

— Dr. Seuss, The Cat in the Hat

My good friend Bill Campbell used to say, “You’re as dumb as a post” to our football team. Soon, posts won’t have to be dumb.

To anybody under the age of 30, it’s not a “smartphone”… it’s a phone. You expect to have a computer in your pocket. Never mind that it’s more powerful than the computers NASA used to land the first astronauts on the moon.

In his 1995 book Being Digital, Nicholas Negroponte argued that technology would transform our world — down to the everyday objects that surround us. He foresaw a future where atoms are relentlessly transformed into bits. It’s remarkable how prophetic he was.

Atoms make up physical, tangible objects such as CDs, books, and newspapers. Bits are the smallest unit of information on a computer. They have no color, weight, or size, and can travel at the speed of light.

Being Digital argues that everything physical will ultimately become digital… that atoms get replaced by bits.

This prophesy has played out in phases. Its evolution can be traced through the rise of Amazon, which began by distributing physical items digitally (e.g. Books), and now distributes digital items digitally (e.g. eBooks).

But an interesting twist to Negroponte’s paradigm is emerging. As we embed chips in physical devices to make them “smart,” bits and atoms are co-mingling in compelling ways. Collectively called the Internet of Things (IoT), connected devices are appearing in our homes, on the highway, in manufacturing plants, and on our wrists. Estimates vary widely but IDC has predicted that the IoT market will surpass $1.7 trillion by 2020.

Here again, Amazon’s arc is instructive. Its “Echo” smart speaker, powered by a digital assistant, “Alexa”, has sold over three million units in a little over a year. Echo enables users to play music with voice commands, as well as manage other integrated home systems, including lights, fans, door locks, and thermostats.

Amazon Echo: A “Smart” Speaker

Source: The Verge

The “Internet of Things” is effectively a catch-all for connecting devices — from consumer objects to industrial equipment — onto a network. This enables information gathering and remote device management via software to increase efficiency. It also enables the creation of new services, to achieve, health, safety, business, or environmental benefits.

Source: Goldman Sachs, GSV Asset Management

STATE OF PLAY

The Internet of Things entered the public consciousness in recent years with the rise of wearable devices focused on health and wellness, led by Fitbit. Today, the company counts more than 20 million users and Forbes projects that over 400 million wearable devices will be sold per year in 2020, worth $34+ billion.

But increasingly, anything than can be connected will be connected. Accordingly, we’re poised to see a rapid proliferation of IoT devices. Today, Cisco estimates that there are 18 billion such devices, growing to 50 billion by 2020.

Rise of the Internet of Things (IoT)
Projected Internet-Connected “Objects” (Billions)

Source: Cisco

As a result, chipmakers are making massive bets on IoT to meet surging demand for connected devices.

In June, Samsung announced a $1.2 billion U.S. initiative to broaden its IoT capabilities — from chips to a range of connected products — over the next four years. A month later, SoftBank broke the bank with a $32 billion acquisition of ARM Holdings, which licenses chips used in smartphones, as well as an increasing number of Internet-connected domestic appliances. Earlier, in February, Cisco completed a $1.4 billion acquisition of Jasper Technologies, a software developer that allows businesses to manage everything from beer kegs to vending machines, cars, and security systems.

The surge in devices is driving a massive output of information, an impact that is already visible in the digital universe. Data from embedded systems — the sensors and systems that monitor physical objects — already accounts for 2% of global data usage. By 2020 it is projected to increase 5x.

IoT from Embedded System as a % of Global Data Usage

Source: IDC, EMC

Financing Activity

Between 2012 and 2015, VCs invested over $9 billion in IoT businesses across 1,300+ deals. During this period, annual funding grew from $1.4 billion to $3.2 billion, representing a 34% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). But the pace of dealmaking has cooled off in recent months. Funding sank from $837 million in Q1 2016 to $656 million in Q2, and activity fell from 75 deals to 62.

IoT Global Yearly Financing, 2012-2016P ($M)
$1.5+ Billion Invested across 142 Deals in 2016 YTD

Source: CB Insights

Notable 2016 financings include gaming hardware maker Razer ($75 million Series C), smart doorbell Ring ($61 million Series C), IoT platform Ayla Networks ($39 million Series C), smart thermostat Tado ($23 million Series C).

In March, GSVlabs hosted an IoT innovation showcase, with a group of 25 emerging IoT and connected home startups, including Automatic Labs, Center Electric, and SIGFOX. We expect this ecosystem to expand as disruptive businesses continue to proliferate and investors seek them out. (Disclosure: GSV owns shares in GSVlabs)

GSVlabs IoT Panel
Left to Right: Li Jiang (GSV), Inga Chen (Automatic Labs), Andy Smith (Center Electric) Francois Oudot (SIGFOX)

Source: GSVlabs

OBJECTS VS. SERVICES: THE LESSON FROM CARS

The automobile industry offers two key lessons for the future of IoT.

First, services are more important than objects. Uber and Lyft effectively make any car “smart” because anyone with an iPhone can plug their vehicle into a network that connects passengers with drivers. At some point, the current fleet of cars will be replaced with even “smarter” autonomous vehicles. But what consumers care about is that they can access affordable, efficient rides. Connected objects are less important than the compelling service they provide or enable.

The second lesson is that increasingly, it will be table stakes for objects to be “smart.” It’s a redundancy. Anything with a chip can be “connected.” Insanely good products, as always, will make the difference.

This week, Tesla announced improvements to its 0-60 acceleration and battery life that underscore how much the company’s vehicles break with precedent. Teslas are not cars with chips. They are computers on wheels.

Tesla = Computer on Wheels

Source: Tesla

For example, Teslas uses Big Data analytics to anticipate problems and improve performance. The Model S runs constant calculations to estimate how much charge is available on a driver’s battery. Battery range factors in a variety of data collected in real-time, including route terrain, outside windspeed, and driver usage patterns. The car continuously monitors its distance from the nearest supercharger, and notifies drivers before they go out of range.

Meanwhile, improvements to speed, battery function, and handling, can be downloaded as Tesla releases software updates. Going from a Tesla to a regular car is like switching back to a flip phone.

EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES

Smart Home

Google’s (Alphabet) $3.2 billion acquisition of Nest, the smart thermostat maker, in 2014 signaled the beginning of a land grab for the connected home. Later that year, it bought Dropcam, a home security camera maker, for $550 million.

As the Economist has reported, Nest has undoubtably been a disappointment to date for Google. It sold just 1.3 million units in 2015, and only 2.5 million in total over the past few years. Nest founder Tony Fadell stepped down in June amid reports that he had a much broader and aggressive vision for the product than Google was willing to pursue.

Nest’s problems are symptomatic of IoT for the home more broadly. According to Forrester, only 6% of American households have a “smart” home device, including internet-connected appliances, home-monitoring systems, speakers or lighting.

But as isolated offerings evolve into integrated, compelling services, the opportunity is open-ended. Major technology companies have taken notice, rolling out a variety of offerings to network key aspects of your home.

Big Players Battle For The Connected Home

Though still off the peak seen in 2014 when Google acquired Dropcam and Nest, funding to smart home startups has accelerated in 2016. According to CB Insights, in 2015, VCs invested $404 million in smart home startups across 81 deals. This year will likely close with over $800 million invested across roughly the same deal count.

Connected Home Startups
Emerging Consume Startups Connecting Various Elements of the Home

Source: CB Insights, GSV Asset Management

Industrial IoT

While the consumer adoption of fitness bands and connected household appliances might generate more media buzz, the potential for adoption by businesses may be much greater. Research from the McKinsey Global Institute suggests that the operational efficiencies IoT affords will create economic value measured in the trillions across industries. Think factory automation, real-time production analytics, and supply chain efficiencies.

Investment activity is following the opportunity. Notable 2016 financings include IoT platforms Greenwave Systems ($45 million Series C) and Ayla Networks ($39 million Series C), commercial 3D printing company Desktop Metal ($34 million Series C), commercial drone developer Airware ($30 million Series C), IoT analytics company Maana ($26M Series B), and connected HVAC and lighting company Enlighted ($25 million Series D).

Industrial IoT Global Yearly Financing, 2012-2015 ($M)
$1.3B+ Invested in 2015 vs. $735M in 2014

Source: CB Insights

THE POWER OF THE PLATFORM

It wasn’t too long ago that BlackBerry was the coolest technology company in the World. In fact, people were so addicted to their BlackBerries that they were called “Crackberries.”

In 2007, BlackBerry and Apple were both roughly $70 billion market value businesses. Then Apple launched the iPhone. Today, Apple’s value has ballooned to over $576 billion, while BlackBerry has decreased more than 90 % to $4 billion.

What happened?

Boom vs. Bust: Apple and BlackBerry
Apple and BlackBerry Market Value* ($ Billions), 2007-2016

Source: Yahoo Finance, Apple, BlackBerry

A major part of the story is that Steve Jobs and the Apple TEAM created an insanely great product. The iPhone is a beautiful device with the first viable multi-touch screen interface.

But the critical innovation was Apple’s unprecedented open mobile operating system, iOS, which enabled third-party developers to easily create apps for the device — effectively harnessing the wisdom of crowds to create a rich user experience. Apple created a platform.

Unlike BlackBerry, Apple had an army of outside developers who had already built consumer apps for its computers and iPods and were primed to do the same for the iPhone. By the time BlackBerry launched its first app platform in 2009 — a full two years later — iPhone customers had already downloaded one billion apps.

Recognizing that having a platform was the key to competing for the future of mobile — and by extension, gaining access to a broad consumer activity set — Google launched its Android operating system shortly after the release of the iPhone. Today, iOS and Android power the mobile World and there have been over 226 billion app downloads to date.

As with the smartphone, we’re seeing early signs of platform wars around IoT. Apple’s HomeKit, for example, aims to connect a range of proprietary and third-party smart home devices through an integrated control panel. Amazon recently released an open API framework to enable the integration and management of other devices through its voice-controlled Echo product.

Emerging IoT Platforms

WHAT’S NEXT

In July 2015, the world received a stark example of what hacking looks like in a World where digital and physical boundaries are blurred.

To illustrate the risks, a Wired reporter took the wheel of a Jeep Cherokee while hackers activated the windshield wipers, blasted the radio and air conditioning, and disengaged the car’s transmission while sitting in a basement ten miles away. Within days of the story breaking, Chrysler recalled 1.4 million vehicles that were susceptible to the same kind of attack through the company’s “Uconnect” dashboard computers.

High-Profile Cyber Attacks on Physical Assets

Source: Cisco, GSV Asset Management

Physical assets — from power plants to subway systems — have grown vulnerable to cyber attacks as key aspects of their operation have been digitized and networked.

While these high-profile attacks on large targets have rightfully caused alarm, a much larger threat is emerging by virtue of a rapidly proliferating ecosystem of Internet-connected devices — the Internet of Things (IoT) — that extends beyond computers, phones, and tablets into wearable devices, thermostats and washing machines.

Adding Internet connectivity to everything multiplies vulnerabilities. IoT devices effectively enable sophisticated attackers to move laterally across a network after they gain an entry point. In other words, hackers can infiltrate one device and start probing an entire system until they find a high-value database of personal information or a repository of sensitive business data.

At the core of this challenge is the fact that the proliferation of Internet-connected devices has been fueled by the availability of low-cost, mass-produced semi-conductors which can be embedded in anything. Chipmakers and device producers are both highly incentivized to keep costs down, which has resulted in underinvestment in security capabilities — from encryption to secure booting.

The widespread availability and proliferation of these devices means that once a device is compromised, it’s very difficult for a company to flip a switch and correct the problem.

Compounding the issue is that the surge in connected devices is being catalyzed by young companies that often lack the talent and resources to embed World-class security infrastructure in their products.

Gartner estimates that by 2017, more than half of all IoT products and services will be developed by companies less than three-years-old. And while some of these newcomers are likely to have formidable technical expertise, many will lack the ability to implement viable security mechanisms.

Industry groups like the International Standards Organization (ISO), the Thread Group, the Open Interconnect Consortium, the AllSeen Alliance, and the Industrial Internet Consortium have all turned their attention to dramatically improving security standards in connected devices.

These efforts will accelerate as consumers increasingly understand the yawning security gaps in the World of IoT.

Stocks had a lazy week, which was fitting for the final gasp of Summer. NASDAQ took its first nap in seven weeks and was off 0.4%. The S&P 500 fell 0.7% and the GSV 300 was down 0.1%. Oil prices dropped 3% last week, falling below $50, but new home sales shot up 12%.

World Indices

Source: Yahoo Finance, GSViQ

Fed Chairman Yellen yodeled from the mountains of Jackson Hole that it looks like rates are heading upward. Her Vice Chairman, Stanley Fischer, put an exclamation point on her remarks and said we should expect a few rate hikes before the new year.

Walmart got back to its old ways, inflicting pain on competitors. Dollar Tree and Dollar General both fell over 10%, hurt by the boys from Bentonville. Best Buy roared back from the dead with surprisingly strong results and its shares soared 21% for the week.

Workday popped revenues 34%, and despite larger losses than Wall Street forecasted, its shares rose for the week. Tesla continued to show that it was effectively a computer on wheels, with upgrades providing quicker 0-60 acceleration and longer battery life.

We remain BULLISH on the outlook for premier growth companies, and accordingly, continue to be BULLISH on buying leaders such as Facebook, Google, Amazon, Tencent and Alibaba.  

Bubblin'

by Luben Pampoulov

Are We Out Of The Woods?

Are we in the clear yet? — These are the big questions in the autonomous car industry today. Week after week we read about new deals and investments that will eventually help cars become driver-less. But until it happens, we will experience lots of trials …and errors unfortunately.

The fatal Tesla accident that caused one man’s death in May is the latest such example. The self-driving mode was not able to distinguish between a white truck and a bright sky in that case, according to Tesla, and resulted in the tragic death of the passenger.

Weeks later, Tesla terminated its partnership with Mobileye — the self-driving software/hardware provider — and announced it will start developing its own autonomous driving technology.

Earlier in the year, GM invested $500 million in Lyft, and the two companies said they’d be working on developing an on-demand, self-driving car system that could be available as soon as 2019. Meanwhile, Uber partnered with Volvo and the two are launching a pilot with the Volvo XC90 SUV in Pittsburgh this month. In a joint venture, Uber and Volvo are also investing $300 million to develop a fully autonomous car that will be ready for the roads by 2021. (Disclosure: GSV owns shares in Lyft).

At the same time, Ford announced it is partnering with Baidu to invest $150 million into Velodyne, a major supplier of self-driving car technology. Velodyne’s LiDAR is a light-sensitive radar mounted on the top of vehicles, and it provides a 3D view of surroundings of up to 200 meters away. LiDAR’s price tag has come down significantly over the years, from $80K to now $8K, and the new investment should further reduce the cost. Ford executives believe cars with this new technology will be ready for the road by 2021.

But some places already have driver-less cars. Last week, Singapore launched the world’s first robo-taxi service with cars operated by nuTonomy — a Cambridge, MA-based startup, backed by Highland Capital and EDB. The trial allows users to hail a taxi and get a free ride on a 6km street network. nuTonomy is also testing self-driving cars in the U.S. and the U.K., where it collaborates with Jaguar Land Rover. Users in Singapore can now call a ride just like Michael Knight did with KITT 2000… Thirty-four years later, reality meets Hollywood!

The single biggest challenge for self-driving technology is “recognition.” As in the Tesla accident, the software needs to recognize the street, the signs, moving objects, people, cars, what’s approaching, etc. Everything else is taken care of in a manner of split seconds. But if the system cannot identify between a bright sky and a white tractor, it will not compute.

Especially troublesome are street boarders/marks, according to Baidu Chief Scientist Andrew Ng. It is absolutely essential for the car to know its position on the street. But in many places around the world, street marks are not obvious, or even missing, which causes errors in the self-driving system. Think of third world cities, or off road driving… That’s why well organized places like Singapore are among the first ones to now offer self-driving services. 

Pioneer Notes

by Li Jiang

What Matters Most to You, And Why?

I spent the better part of my childhood with my paternal grandparents. My grandpa would let me run wild on the playground, buy me neat books, and give me any toy I whimsically set my eyes on. Still, he made sure I strived to do my best in school. He was loving, but tough. My grandma would make me memorize poems, badger me to take on extra practice problems for school, and enforce curfews and every other rule in the house. Still, she made sure I got to eat some of my favorite food (and she’d cook them too)! She was tough, but loving. This upbringing gave me the confidence to chase my wildest dreams as well as the discipline to work through the thorniest obstacles.

Loving but tough. Tough but loving.

Two decades later, on my first visit to Silicon Valley to interview for a job, my now partner Michael Moe took me to the Old Pro in Palo Alto. It was so I could meet Bill Campbell, a friend and advisor to the firm.

Of course I had read about the legend of Bill and watched videos on him speaking, but I had no idea what to expect. Bill not only served as the CEO and Chairman of Intuit, he was also the longest serving board member at Apple, a coach to Eric Schmidt, Larry Page and Sergey Brin at Google, and the mentor and confidant to countless executives in Silicon Valley.

I nervously walked over. He’s surrounded by his friends at the Coach’s Corner at the Old Pro. Michael introduces us, then Bill asks me a few benign questions, “where are you from?”, “where did you go to school?”, “what are you doing here?”

At this point, Michael jumps in and starts telling Bill about my background as a college entrepreneur and a financial analyst. Michael then said something to the effect that he was excited to recruit me to the firm. What happened next was classic Bill. He turns to Michael and in his raspy, yet booming coaching voice and shouts, “Why don’t you fucking hire him already.” Then he roared in laughter.

And through the years, Bill always gave me a hug every time he saw me. Little pipsqueak me.

Bill was always laughing.

Bill was the very definition of loving but tough and tough but loving.

As Intuit CEO Brad Smith describes it, Bill was on a mission to get the best out of everyone. After Brad moved over to Intuit, his prior employer felt that there was a competitive conflict and it created a legal issue that Intuit had to work (and pay) through. So at his very first leadership conference at Intuit, someone walked up to Brad, wrapped his arm around his shoulder and neck, cutting off his oxygen flow, and whispered in his ear, “You are the fucker that cost us this much money. You better be worth it.” It was Bill. And at that point, Brad knew what the standard was.

Bill gave everyone his trademark bear hug, the kind with the force that you knew he meant it. He cared so deeply about the people in his life. He treated everyone with love, from the people in his hometown of Homestead, Pennsylvania to the CEOs of the most dynamic Silicon Valley company. But when you weren’t doing your best work, Bill would let you know it in all of his colorful language. After every such dressing down, however, he’d give you a big, tight hug and you felt like you could charge headfirst into any battle. You knew then that you could climb the highest mountain and swim the widest river.

Bill gave to everyone and never expected anything in return. He helped so many people through the biggest challenges of their lives. He loved and he gave. He coached and he inspired. He laughed and he shared. And of course he’d pick up every bar tab you ever went to with him.

Go to 5 min 50 sec for the Brad Smith story.

Last year, we thought it was only fitting to induct Bill into the Global Silicon Valley Hall of Fame, honoring the people who have made a lifetime impact on our community and changed the world for good. We went around to interview some of the people who he worked with closely.

We spoke with Danny Shader, a CEO who Bill coached for decades. Danny said he always asked Bill how he could repay him for everything Bill gave to him. Bill said, “You can’t. The way you repay me is to teach these values to the next generation of people and make sure they teach that to the generation after them.” That’s really the very definition of creating legacy.

Go to 3 min 10 sec for Danny Shader talking about Bill’s legacy.

What matters most to me is helping people achieve their best by treating them with the combination of love and toughness, being loving but tough and tough but loving. What matters most to me is giving back to the next generation everything that I was given, with no expectations of getting anything in return. What matters most to me is passing on the values and having the people I touch pass these values onto the next generation. If we do that enough times, we’ll have changed the world for good. And that is what matters to me most and why.

Market Update

Week ending August 28, 2016

World Indices

America Index 11/12/2017 YTD Week
U.S. GSV 300 115.7 53.1% 0.0%
NYSE 12322.6 11.4% (0.4%)
Dow 23422.2 18.5% (0.5%)
NASDAQ 6750.9 25.4% (0.2%)
NASDAQ-100 6309.1 29.7% 0.2%
Russell 2000 1475.3 8.7% (1.3%)
S&P 500 2582.3 15.3% (0.2%)
Brazil Bovespa 72165.6 19.8% (2.4%)
Mexico IPC 48028.3 5.2% (1.0%)
Canada S&P TSX 16039.3 4.9% 0.1%
Euro-Asia Index 11/12/2017 YTD Week
China SSE 3432.7 10.6% 1.8%
Heng Seng 29120.9 32.4% 1.8%
Singapore Straits Times 3420.1 18.7% 1.1%
Indonesia JKSE 6021.8 13.7% (0.3%)
Japan Nikkei 225 22681.4 18.7% 0.6%
India Sensex 33314.6 25.1% (1.1%)
Russia RTS 2169.3 (2.8%) 4.2%
France CAC 40 5380.7 10.7% (2.5%)
Germany DAX 13127.5 14.3% (2.6%)
U.K. FTSE 100 7433.0 4.1% (1.7%)



U.S. Indices Snapshot

Valuation P/E Est. P/E/G Price/Sales
LTM NTM Growth LTM NTM LTM NTM
S&P 500 24.3x 19.4x 7.60% 3.2x 2.6x 2.4x 2.1x
NASDAQ 25.5x 17.6x 7.80% 3.3x 2.3x 2.7x 2.2x
Russell 2000 25.1x 17.7x 6.30% 4.0x 2.8x 1.9x 1.7x
GSV 300 54.1x 27.5x 38.60% 1.4x 0.7x 5.7x 4.0x

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